http://www.prudentsquirrel.com/breakingnews/14_05_08.htm

“A very serious world grain shortage is spreading. This is causing serious food inflation, is driving world inflation, and the poorest 1 billion people in Asia who live on (Imagine this!) $2 a day or less and who were paying half or more of their income on rice or bread, now cannot afford to feed themselves. This fact has China, Egypt, India, much of Asia, and poorer South American countries in a quasi panic.”
“Rising diesel and fertilizer prices are forcing farmers to cut planted acres, cut / cull livestock herds, just when the world needs more, not less food. It is said that unless the world has record grain harvests in 08, there will be a real world famine in 09. So far, what we have seen is some scattered food riots that are scaring the hell out of nations with big poor populations …”
“There is a report that 25% of the world wheat crop is at serious risk of a new virulent wheat rust that chokes the wheat before it comes to head. (Mid East to Asia). The US has its own concerns over a wheat rust spreading through the Mid West. So, what are the chances of a record grain harvest in 08?”
“Just to give an idea of the concern about food, China just spent a $400 a ton premium on fertilizer that used to cost $170 a ton Jan 08. It was a huge order. Reason? They are afraid that if they don’t have great harvests this year, tens of millions may starve in 09. It is a grim situation. Other poor countries in Africa, Asia, [and] South America are also very concerned about grain shortages.”
“Oil is at record prices (nominally). U.S. economic activity is slowing because of that, not to mention the big drag the housing bubble is putting on things. There is huge inflation in energy and foods, and other essentials, while in the non essentials there is price weakness. It’s a combination of inflation and deflation.”