“… There are many nations having critical food shortages at this time. Egypt tried to cut bread subsidies and had to roll that back after widespread riots. The Philippines has tried to get emergency rice shipments from the usual big exporters, but countries such as China, Vietnam, and others have just cut exports because of their own grain concerns . . .”
We have two opposite forces at work in a big way worldwide. “We have inflation in energy and foods (a double whammy because growing food consumes a lot of diesel) and then we have a huge deleveraging in world financial markets.”
Grains are in shortage and so is oil. “The shortages are causing real food emergencies in 33 nations so far. They are now resorting to privately negotiated grain deals, and trying to bypass the usual grain markets.”
“This is not totally new, but having nations negotiate grain purchases causes more disruption and shortages in the normal grain markets. Even with negotiated grain export deals, the prices still reflect the rising prices being driven by the general grain markets. So, all that happens is a big structural cause of further price rises, and really no alleviation of the shortages.”
“The only thing that can alleviate the shortages is to get better harvests. But it is said that the world MUST have record grain harvests in 08 or else face a real world food emergency in 09.”
Another problem is shortages of critical fertilizers.
The USD will have a serious crisis within ten years. “The US Federal government will be in fiscal chaos and likely bankrupt.” In ten years there will be a huge oil crisis.